'How Big Things Get Done' - Book Review

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This week’s newsletter is brought to you by a new book by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner ― How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine The Fate of Every Project From Home Renovations To Space Exploration and Everything In-Between!

Today we're diving into a detailed review of the book How Big Things Get Done. This book is not just an interesting read; it's one that has changed the way I handle and deliver projects, and has made me a more effective manager.

This review is structured in four clear sections:

1. My Brief Summary: A quick overview of the main points.

2. My Favorite Ideas: A highlight of the most intriguing concepts.

3. My Professional Evaluation: A closer look at how the book relates to real-life work situations.

4. My Recommendation: My final thoughts on who should read this book.

Join me in exploring the key takeaways from this impactful book. I believe it can be a game-changer for many of us in our professional lives!

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Part One: My Brief Summary

"How Big Things Get Done” is an impressive collaboration between renowned scholar Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg and expert writer Dan Gardner. Primarily aimed at project management professionals and individuals involved in large-scale projects, this book serves as a guide to navigating the complexities of managing ambitious projects.

The two authors present a compelling thesis: the success of a project, regardless of its size, lies not in its technical aspects but rather in human psychology and decision-making. They argue that understanding and managing human biases and logical fallacies is the key to successful project execution.

The book is rooted in the analysis of the world's largest database of big projects, from small home renovations, to Olympic stadiums, to huge space exploration projects. It uncovers the common pitfalls that lead to project failures and offers a set of effective philosophies and principles to generate predictable outcomes.

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Part Two: My Favorite Ideas

Photo by Jasper Wilde

Here's a compilation of my favorite insights and pivotal lessons gleaned from the book.

💡 Think Slow, Act Fast

The overarching philosophy of all successful projects, "Think Slow, Act Fast" emphasizes the importance of careful planning and analysis before executing a project.

Projects that fail typically follow the opposite philosophy, "Think Fast, Act Slow."

Essentially if you “think fast” during the planning stage of your big project, you’ll be forced to “act slow” in the future while you deal with the challenges of a plan that doesn’t work.

A study of 1,471 projects showed that 86% of them had cost overruns, which could have been avoided with better planning (Flyvbjerg, 2003). By investing time and resources into creating a detailed, tested, and proven plan, you can limit your exposure to potential issues during the delivery phase.

Remember, planning is relatively cheap and safe, while delivery is expensive and dangerous. You want to limit your exposure to this by taking all the time necessary to create a detailed, tested, and PROVEN plan.

💡 Close the Window of Doom

Projects that fail tend to drag on, while those that succeed zip along and finish.

Think of the duration of a project an open window. The longer the duration, the more open the window. The more open the window, the more opportunity for something to crash through and cause trouble, including a big, bad black swan. - Bent Flyvbjerg

The Window of Doom is the time that your project is in delivery mode and “at risk.” Black Swan events such as these may be extremely unlikely on any given day, month, or year. But the more time that passes from the decision to do a project to its delivery, the greater their probability.

Black Swan: a term used to describe an event that is extremely rare, unpredictable, and has a major impact. It's like something that you don't expect to happen, but when it does, it changes everything. Think of it as a big surprise that you didn't see coming, and it drastically changes your plans or understanding. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic was a black swan.

The longer a project is in the delivery phase, the more it is exposed to risk. liability, and black swans. By closing the "window of doom" and completing the project as quickly as possible, you minimize the chances of encountering unexpected complications.

The Channel Tunnel project, which connects the UK and France, is a prime example of a project that suffered from a prolonged window of doom. It took six years to complete and cost 80% more than initially estimated due to various delays and complications during the construction phase.

💡 The Biggest Risk is YOU

The biggest risk in managing a project is often ourselves. Human psychology and behavioral biases come into play, particularly when stakes and complexity are high.

It’s tempting to think that project’s fail because the world throws surprises at us: price and scope changes, accidents, weather, or new management. But this is shallow thinking.

History shows that projects often fail because people succumb to biases or logical fallacies, choosing to disregard truths or follow flawed reasoning. The greatest threat you face isn't external; it lies within your own biases and thought patterns. This holds true for every one of us and for every project.

Some of the common fallacies that the book references include:

• The Optimism Bias

• The Commitment Fallacy

• The Sunk Cost Fallacy

• What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI)

The authors cite the example of the Denver International Airport, which faced a $2 billion cost overrun and opened 16 months behind schedule due to decision-makers falling prey to the "planning fallacy" and the "optimism bias." Being mindful of these biases can help prevent such pitfalls.

💡 Thinking From Right to Left

"Thinking right to left" is a mindset in planning and problem-solving where you start by envisioning your end goal first, and then you work backwards to figure out the steps needed to achieve it. This concept is also known as reverse engineering.

This approach helps us bypass our biases and anticipate potential issues, sequence tasks efficiently, and ensures we have a clear picture of what success looks like. It's a useful method in many fields, from project management to software development to event planning.

💡 Reference Class Forecasting

One useful reality check is to compare the project under consideration to similar projects that have already been completed.

Known as “reference-class forecasting,” this process addresses confirmation bias by forcing decision makers to consider cases that don’t necessarily justify the preferred course of action. For example, if a city wants to build a ten-kilometer metro line with four stations, it should look at other cities that have built similar lines to understand the true cost and time dynamics.

Reference class forecasting is a method of predicting future outcomes by looking at similar past situations. By grouping projects into reference classes based on similarity, you can more accurately estimate costs and timelines for your own project.

This approach helps to account for potential issues and provides a more realistic view of what to expect. The authors note that the Sydney Opera House, initially projected to cost $7 million and be completed in four years, ended up costing $102 million and taking 14 years to complete. Had the planners used reference class forecasting, they could have foreseen the potential risks and adjusted their estimates accordingly.

💡 Think in Modularity

The concept of modularity, or creating big things from small things, is a valuable approach for projects of all types and sizes.

Big is best built from small. Bake one small cake. Bake another. And another. Then stack them. Decoration aside, that’s all there really is to even the most towering wedding cake. As with wedding cakes, so with solar and wind farms, server farms, batteries, container shipping, pipelines, roads. They’re all profoundly modular, built with a basic building block. They can scale up like crazy, getting better, faster, bigger, and cheaper as they do. - Bent Flyvbjerg

By designing your project to deliver small modules or increments, you can obtain fast feedback and make improvements along the way. This results in faster, cheaper, and better outcomes.

Apple's development of the iPhone is an excellent example of modularity in action. By focusing on individual components and software modules, Apple was able to refine and improve each aspect of the device, resulting in a groundbreaking product.

💡 Hire a Master Builder

Master Builders possess the practical wisdom needed to bring your project to fruition. They have deep domain experience and a proven track record of success in their field, whether it's a home renovation, a wedding, an IT system, or a skyscraper.

One of the main jobs of the master builder is to "get the team right," or provide leadership. As the saying goes, "If you get the team right, you will get the ideas right."

The story of Jørn Utzon, the architect behind the Sydney Opera House, demonstrates the importance of having a master builder at the helm. While Utzon was undoubtedly a visionary architect, he lacked the practical experience and team leadership skills needed to see the project through to completion.

As a result, the project faced numerous setbacks, and Utzon eventually resigned before the Opera House was finished. Hiring a master builder with the right blend of visionary thinking and practical expertise is a must to avoid such pitfalls and increase your project's chances of success.

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Part Three: My Professional Evaluation

The authors' primary goal was to shift the reader's focus from technicalities to human psychology in project management. This perspective is supported with evidence from real-world projects, making the book's thesis both clear and compelling.

The arguments they make to support their main idea are strong and easy to understand. They use tons of case studies to prove their point, which makes it easy to get on board with what they're saying. It's clear they've done their research.

The book covers everything you need to know about project management, but it goes the extra mile by focusing on the people side of things, which often gets overlooked. It's got a unique approach and really goes deep into the subject.

The authors, Prof. Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner, are a perfect match. Flyvbjerg's deep knowledge of project management and Gardner's knack for telling a good story brings something special to the book.

The writing in the book is engaging and easy to follow. They keep things conversational, so even the tricky topics are easy to grasp. They do a great job of organizing their points and communicating them clearly.

The book undoubtedly helped me understand the human dynamics involved in project management. While the book covers a lot, I would have liked more practical tips on how to handle these human biases in real situations. But overall, I agree with the authors' main idea - it's a refreshing take on project management.

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Part Four: My Recommendation

Without a doubt, "How Big Things Get Done" earns a hearty recommendation from me. It breathes fresh life into the project management conversation by spotlighting the pivotal role of human psychology.

This book isn't just a good read—it's an essential resource for anyone involved in large-scale projects. The insights it provides have the potential to radically enhance your project results.

Regardless of whether you're a seasoned pro or just getting your feet wet in the project management field, this book promises to reshape your approach and add a new dimension to your project management skills.

Until next week,

Kyle Nitchen

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